Tuesday, February 7, 2012

HR CAN Have a Crystal Ball When it Comes to Turnover

You know just when I think I have nothing to write about, I get a great comment by one of my readers that sparks my creative juices.

This week I would like to thank Micky Jay for his/her (not sure) comment on HR and Predictive Analytics a blog post of mine from last year.

He discussed the possibility of being predictive in the area of "who is at risk for leaving our organization?"

Think about this for a moment. If you, as the HR Rockstar, were able to go to your managers and say; "I have been doing some analysis and we have discovered that your top performers Jane, Joe and Tommy are at risk for leaving the organization." And then, you as the HR Rockstar were able to say to your managers, "I believe we need to do XYZ to retain these employees." WOW, how popular would you be? I am thinking that piece of office furniture that is so near and dear to HR hearts would be no longer an issue.

I know your next question...How do I do this? Well, trust me when I say it is easy. I bet you have the data just laying around in a spreadsheet somewhere.

You need to look at engagement data and performance data and determine ranges for high performance an high engagement. You then analyze employee performance scores with employee engagement scores looking at a few things:

1) Who are my highly engaged and high performing?
2) Who are my non-engaged and high performing?
3) Who are my non-engaged and non performing?
4) Who are my non-engaged and high performing?

You then put the data in a 2x2 that looks something like this:

In the last step, you overlay that data with historical turnover data create a predictive model and then BOOM, you can identify who is at risk. Yes, I have over simplified this as there are statistical tests you must perform at each step of the way, but it is nothing that can't be handled in Excel.

So when you get this data and answer the 4 questions above, you can then take the appropriate actions, which are usually something like this:

1) Who are my highly engaged and high performing? (keep these people, pay close attention to them, and make sure they are rewarded and compensated appropriately)

2) Who are my non-engaged and high performing? (most at risk for leaving, find out why they are non-engaged and do something about it)

3) Who are my non-engaged and non performing? (fire them, assuming all the correct performance management stuff has been done)

4) Who are my highly engaged and non-performing? (either coach them into performance or see above)

Come on get out your crystal balls....be a HR Rockstar!
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